Thursday, May 23, 2013

MVAC hoop scoop: Scores, standings & scenarios

Whether you were in a gym in Ronda, Moravian Falls, East Bend or Elkin last night, you likely found yourself itching to know scores from the other locales hosting Mountain Valley 1A/2A prep basketball games.

It was a big night for the conference, both in boys and girls action, and brought a lot of things into focus with just five games left on the MVAC schedule.

Below are updated MVAC scores and standings, and what it all means for championship races and state playoff berths.

Mountain Valley 1A/2A Boys

Christian Hurt and the Starmount Rams are one win from a conference title.

Tuesday Scoreboard
Forbush 61, Alleghany 51
Starmount 52, East Wilkes 42
Elkin 65, West Wilkes 59
Wilkes Central 72, North Wilkes 66

Conference Standings

Team    Total    Conf.
Starmount (2A)         15-4    12-3
Wilkes Central (2A)    14-7    11-4
North Wilkes (1A)      13-8    11-4
Ashe County (2A)       13-8    10-4
Forbush (2A)           11-8    10-4
Alleghany (1A)         7-14    5-10
Elkin (1A)             4-17    4-12
East Wilkes (1A)       3-18    3-12
West Wilkes (1A)       1-19    1-14

Games Remaining
Wednesday, Feb. 9 Games
Forbush at Ashe County

Friday, Feb. 11 Games
Alleghany at East Wilkes
West Wilkes at Ashe County
Forbush at Wilkes Central
North Wilkes at Starmount

What It All Means
In short, Starmount’s boys control their own destiny. If they beat North Wilkes on Friday night, the Rams are undisputed conference champions. That brings with it a couple of rewards — a No. 1 seed for next week’s conference tournament and a guaranteed No. 1 seed for the upcoming 2A state playoffs, no matter how the conference tournament turns out.

That will be welcome in Boonville after last season, when the Rams had to win the conference tourney just to make the playoffs, only to lose to Forbush in the title game on a buzzer beater (on Starmount’s home floor no less).

If North Wilkes, which has lost two straight, beats Starmount on Friday, then the plot will thicken. Other schools like Ashe County, Wilkes Central and Forbush rejoin the title picture, along with the Vikings. Since all four of those schools currently have four losses, there are still a number of scenarios that could unfold. Tonight’s Forbush at Ashe game is pivotal. Ashe won the first meeting against Forbush in East Bend back in December and is playing some of its best basketball right now.

Another scenario to watch — and maybe the more important one big picture-wise — is the 1A and 2A split. Preliminary state playoff brackets posted by the N.C. High School Athletic Association have three MVAC teams advancing to the 1A playoffs and three from the MVAC going to the 2A playoffs, with a limited number of at-large berths available in the 1A bracket to teams with the best overall records in the western part of the state.

In that regard, North Wilkes is sitting pretty. The Vikes have a huge lead in the race for the top seed from the MVAC in 1A. Alleghany will be the No. 2 seed in 1A, while Elkin slips in at No. 3 (the Elks win over Forbush last Friday helped big time with that). The only way that seeding order changes is if Elkin, West Wilkes or East Wilkes wins the conference tournament, in which case they would take the No. 2 seed and bump everyone else in 1A down a notch.

The race for the 2A playoff spots is much more competitive. Like last season, you’ve got four strong candidates competing for three slots — Starmount, Wilkes Central, Forbush and Ashe County. Since the four teams have been beating up on each other, it’s still not clear as of today how this will shake out.

Two things are for certain — one of those four teams will be sitting at home come state playoff time and two, next week’s conference tournament is huge for the 2A teams in the MVAC. The fourth 2A team in the pecking order after this week will still be able to win their way into the state playoffs by winning the tourney. That should make for a fun week for fans, as a true do-or-die scenario plays out.

Mountain Valley 1A/2A Girls

Courtney Bowers and the Ashe County girls lead the way in the MVAC.

Tuesday Scoreboard
Alleghany 56, Forbush 41
East Wilkes 52, Starmount 41
West Wilkes 49, Elkin 41
Wilkes Central 74, North Wilkes 37

Conference Standings

Team                 Total   Conf.
Ashe County (2A)     18-2    13-1
East Wilkes (1A)     17-4    13-2
Wilkes Central (2A)  18-4    12-3
Alleghany (1A)       15-7    9-6
Forbush (2A)         8-12    6-8
Starmount (2A)       9-11    6-9
West Wilkes (1A)     6-14    5-10
Elkin (1A)           3-19    3-13
North Wilkes (1A)    0-20    0-15


Remaining Games

Wednesday, Feb. 9 Games
Forbush at Ashe County

Friday, Feb. 11 Games

Alleghany at East Wilkes
West Wilkes at Ashe County
Forbush at Wilkes Central
North Wilkes at Starmount

What It All Means
The conference championship trophy is Ashe County’s to lose. If the Huskies beat Forbush and West Wilkes this week, they will continue their reigns as queens of the MVAC.

If Ashe County loses one of those games, and East Wilkes beats Alleghany on Friday, Ashe and East will draw even in the standings. If Ashe were somehow to get upset twice this week, and East Wilkes wins on Friday, then the Cardinals ascend to the throne in the conference.

There can theoretically be a three-way tie for first place in the final standings if Ashe County loses twice this week, East Wilkes loses to Alleghany and Wilkes Central beats Forbush. Tie-breaking procedures would have to be used to separate the teams for conference tournament seeding.

East Wilkes has already won the No. 1 seed for the 1A state playoffs. But the Cardinals really want to finish at least second overall in the conference, if not higher (after getting picked to place fifth by league coaches in the preseason).  Wilkes Central will draw even with the Cardinals if the Eagles win Friday and the Cardinals lose.

Barring a lower-seeded team winning the conference tournament, the state playoff seeding is pretty well set on the girl side — except for one spot. East Wilkes, Alleghany and West Wilkes will represent the MVAC in the 1A state tournament. Ashe County and Wilkes Central are locks for the 2A tournament.

County rivals Starmount and Forbush are still duking it out for the third playoff spot among the MVAC 2As. Even though Starmount lost to East Wilkes on Tuesday to drop to 6-9 in the conference, Alleghany helped keep the Rams’ playoff chances afloat by beating Forbush, dropping the Falcons to 6-8.

The Falcons have tough games ahead of them, traveling to Ashe County today (Wednesday) and Wilkes Central on Friday. If they lose both of those games, and Starmount beats winless North Wilkes on Friday, the Rams will leapfrog over their arch-rivals into the No. 3 playoff spot. If Forbush and Starmount were to end up tied, though, in the standings, Forbush would have the tiebreaker edge based on its two regular season victories against the Rams.

Again, the odd-team out in this scenario will still have a chance to play their way into the state playoffs by winning next week’s conference tournament. But that will be a tough feat considering no one else in the conference has been able to beat Ashe County, Wilkes Central or East Wilkes.

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